CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-03-16T21:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37860/-1
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Partial halo CME with bulk seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery and more towards the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery with faint, very wide shock developing in later frames with invisible leading edge containing lobes to the north and east in both SOHO and STEREO A imagery. The presumed source is an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 4032 (N35E35) seen as a dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2025-03-16T18:04Z, disappearing loop structure in SDO AIA 171, and brightening in SDO AIA 304. There are two eruptions seen in GOES SUVI 304 imagery emanating from the same area, one seen at 18:49Z and another which appears more Earth-directed at 20:49Z. Triangulation using SOHO and STEREO A imagery seems to more strongly support Earth-directedness and deflection westward than the EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-20T03:36Z (-4.56h, +7.27h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2025/03/16 21:00Z Plane of Sky 1: 07:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction POS Difference: 5:40 POS Midpoint: 09:50Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:50 Numeric View/Impact Type: 3 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.13 Travel Time: ~6.13 * 12:50 = 78:36 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-20T03:36Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Forecast Creation Time: 2025/03/17 14:24ZLead Time: 61.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-03-17T14:25Z
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